Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 21.504705 23.371151 25.387148 27.737232 30.415155 33.387887 36.960203
2025-10-26 18.419229 20.937771 23.845653 27.492577 32.003957 37.484039 44.776548
2025-11-02 16.267173 19.128112 22.604862 27.227617 33.351860 41.402354 53.180578
2025-11-09 14.767108 17.841582 21.736788 27.176535 34.826713 45.632160 62.948072
2025-11-16 13.557482 16.742273 20.916934 26.992056 35.989213 49.545813 73.227001
2025-11-23 12.581238 15.823659 20.198016 26.794667 37.023947 53.382391 84.441695
2025-11-30 11.767688 15.033775 19.550890 26.579753 37.940596 57.143696 96.691834
2025-12-07 11.126007 14.416964 19.073011 26.532450 39.074270 61.457528 111.570809
2025-12-14 10.534219 13.817567 18.555142 26.342547 39.908197 65.366878 127.169494
2025-12-21 10.284968 13.687805 18.715036 27.241284 42.764873 73.844350 158.047023
2025-12-28 9.799118 13.170217 18.231517 27.003980 43.483589 78.073177 180.066754
2026-01-04 9.408747 12.768253 17.893040 26.970342 44.573812 83.389941 208.984114
2026-01-11 9.098375 12.476755 17.720390 27.233129 46.352439 90.985877 252.804284
2026-01-18 8.720360 12.058073 17.310800 27.026310 47.136635 96.409517 294.312219
2026-01-25 8.367559 11.658443 16.903802 26.781765 47.804481 101.782789 342.603456
2026-02-01 8.079890 11.345531 16.619264 26.738148 48.914997 108.824233 410.584651
2026-02-08 7.792344 11.016682 16.284161 26.560736 49.688713 115.184966 487.313426
2026-02-15 7.524429 10.705544 15.958664 26.369122 50.399484 121.668651 581.098865
2026-02-22 7.273209 10.409145 15.639851 26.159666 51.035335 128.214902 696.172038
2026-03-01 7.064199 10.172327 15.411468 26.113686 52.083935 136.759558 866.376035
2026-03-08 6.848633 9.914360 15.129344 25.928202 52.740110 144.191941 1065.439202
2026-03-15 6.795192 9.926356 15.336470 26.806482 56.457094 166.256913 1696.114693
2026-03-22 6.594901 9.678345 15.048834 26.574645 57.009400 174.880559 2189.279182